December 2024 | Released January 31, 2025
Expenditures and inflation
From November 2024 to December 2024:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.26
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 0.16 percent.
This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more
volatile.
- All services inflation was 0.30 percent.
- All goods inflation was 0.16 percent.
- Durable goods inflation was -0.42 percent.
- Nondurable goods inflation was 0.48 percent.
- Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by
0.40 percent, or $65.58 billion.
- Real PCE on all services increased by 0.26 percent,
or $28.37 billion.
- Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.70 percent, or
$39.27 billion.
- Real PCE on durable goods increased by 1.07
percent, or $22.7 billion.
- Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.51
percent, or $17.6 billion.
- The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.3
percentage points to 3.8 percent.
From December 2023 to December 2024:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.55
percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 2.79
percent.
From November 2024 to December 2024:
- Headline personal income increased by 0.37 percent,
or $92.01 billion.
- Real disposable personal income per capita increased by 0.06
percent, which means that after tax income rose more quickly
than prices.
Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators
|
|
Dec 2024
|
Nov 2024
|
Chg. from Nov 2024
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disposable Personal Income
|
0.11%
|
0.13%
|
-0.02pp
|
|
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
0.40%
|
0.47%
|
-0.07pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.26%
|
0.12%
|
0.14pp
|
|
Core
|
0.16%
|
0.11%
|
0.05pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.55%
|
2.45%
|
0.10pp
|
|
Core
|
2.79%
|
2.82%
|
-0.03pp
|
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast
|
|
Cleveland Fed forecast
|
Actual
|
Forecast error
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.22%
|
0.26%
|
-0.04pp
|
|
Core
|
0.23%
|
0.16%
|
0.07pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.40%
|
2.55%
|
-0.15pp
|
|
Core
|
2.55%
|
2.79%
|
-0.24pp
|
Upcoming releases
|
Date
|
Time
|
Release
|
Data source
|
|
Feb 07
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Employment Update, January 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Feb 07
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Debt Update, February 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Feb 12
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Inflation Update, January 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Feb 13
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Fiscal Update, January 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Feb 27
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2024 Second Estimate
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Feb 28
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2025
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over
year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are
seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to
rounding.