February 2025 | Released March 28, 2025
Expenditures and inflation
From January 2025 to February 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.33
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 0.37 percent.
This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more
volatile.
- All services inflation was 0.37 percent.
- All goods inflation was 0.23 percent.
- Durable goods inflation was 0.41 percent.
- Nondurable goods inflation was 0.13 percent.
- Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by
0.10 percent, or $16.69 billion.
- Real PCE on all services decreased by 0.15 percent,
or $16.1 billion.
- Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.66 percent, or
$36.44 billion.
- Real PCE on durable goods increased by 0.97
percent, or $20.04 billion.
- Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.50
percent, or $17.25 billion.
- The nominal personal savings rate increased by 0.3
percentage points to 4.6 percent.
From February 2024 to February 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.54
percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 2.79
percent.
From January 2025 to February 2025:
- Headline personal income increased by 0.77 percent,
or $194.7 billion.
- Real disposable personal income per capita increased by 0.50
percent, which means that after tax income rose more quickly
than prices.
Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators
|
|
Feb 2025
|
Jan 2025
|
Chg. from Jan 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disposable Personal Income
|
0.54%
|
0.32%
|
0.22pp
|
|
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
0.10%
|
-0.61%
|
0.71pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.33%
|
0.34%
|
-0.01pp
|
|
Core
|
0.37%
|
0.30%
|
0.07pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.54%
|
2.52%
|
0.02pp
|
|
Core
|
2.79%
|
2.66%
|
0.13pp
|
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast
|
|
Cleveland Fed forecast
|
Actual
|
Forecast error
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.19%
|
0.33%
|
-0.14pp
|
|
Core
|
0.19%
|
0.37%
|
-0.18pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.38%
|
2.54%
|
-0.16pp
|
|
Core
|
2.60%
|
2.79%
|
-0.19pp
|
Upcoming releases
|
Date
|
Time
|
Release
|
Data source
|
|
Apr 04
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Employment Update, March 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Apr 07
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Debt Update, April 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Apr 10
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Inflation Update, March 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Apr 11
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Apr 18
|
10:00 AM
|
State Employment Update, March 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over
year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are
seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to
rounding.