January 2025

Released February 28, 2025

Expenditures and inflation

From December 2024 to January 2025:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.33 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 0.28 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
• All services inflation was 0.25 percent.
• All goods inflation was 0.50 percent.
  • Durable goods inflation was 0.33 percent.
  • Nondurable goods inflation was 0.59 percent.

• Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased by 0.47 percent, or $77.6 billion.
• Real PCE on all services increased by 0.08 percent, or $8.78 billion.
• Real PCE on all goods decreased by 1.68 percent, or $94.53 billion.
  • Real PCE on durable goods decreased by 3.35 percent, or $72.46 billion.
  • Real PCE on nondurable goods decreased by 0.77 percent, or $26.86 billion.

• The nominal personal savings rate increased by 1.1 percentage points to 4.6 percent.

From January 2024 to January 2025:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.51 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 2.65 percent.

Income and savings

From December 2024 to January 2025:

• Headline personal income increased by 0.88 percent, or $221.89 billion.
• Real disposable personal income per capita increased by 0.51 percent, which means that after tax income rose more quickly than prices.

Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

	Jan 2025	Dec 2024	Chg. from Dec 2024
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income	0.56%	0.16%	0.40pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures	-0.47%	0.55%	-1.02pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.33%	0.29%	0.04pp
Core	0.28%	0.21%	0.07pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.51%	2.60%	-0.09pp
Core	2.65%	2.86%	-0.21pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.38%	0.33%	0.05pp
Core	0.37%	0.28%	0.09pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.51%	2.51%	0.00pp
Core	2.66%	2.65%	0.01pp

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Mar 07	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, February 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 07	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, March 2025	U.S. Treasury
Mar 12	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, February 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 13	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, February 2025	U.S. Treasury
Mar 17	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, January 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Mar 27	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2024 Third Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 28	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, February 2025	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Mar 28	10:00 AM	State Employment Update, February 2025	Bureau of Labor Statistics

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.