Reports and Issue Briefs
Consumer Confidence Near Record Highs
Consumer confidence—measured as an index of households’ optimism about current and prospective business, employment, and income conditions—is at a 17-year high. During the Obama era it was the lowest for any economic expansion lasting one year or more going back to 1967. This changed following the l...
Record High U.S. Crude Oil Field Production
U.S. field production of crude oil reached a record high for the month of February 2018, surpassing the previous record set in November 1970. This is a sharp turnaround from a decade ago when production had fallen to its lowest since the 1940s. (Weekly production for the week ending May 18 reached t...
More Good Economic News Released Last Week…
The Fed’s industrial production index, which measures the U.S. production of tangible goods, such as cars, electronics, medical equipment, etc.—registered “unequivocal strength” last month. For this month, the New York and Philly Federal Reserve banks’ manufacturing survey data from those banks’ dis...
More Small Businesses are Giving Workers Raises
The NFIB (National Federation of Independent Business) survey data shows the net percentage of small businesses* raising worker compensation over the last three months has increased to 33%—a notable rise since the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) became law. See JEC Chairman Paulsen’s Wall Street Journa...
Economic Update: Workers Winning From Increased Business Investment
Since the November 2016 election, new orders of “core capital goods” (excludes defense and aircraft orders) continue to show robust growth after declining since late 2014. This counters the claim by some critics that businesses are just buying back their own stock or paying out more dividends, altho...
Chairman Paulsen Cheers News of 3.9% Unemployment Rate
"These numbers show that we are on the right path with our economic policies: The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9 percent in April, the lowest since December of 2000. Our labor market is running strong with job creation of 200,000 per month on average this year. Wages are also improving, with the s...
April 2018 Jobs Review
The economy continues to generate healthy job growth and in recent months a long-awaited pick-up in wage growth. These developments together give no indication of the labor market running up against constraints that would hinder continued economic expansion or raise concerns over unwelcome inflation...
May FOMC Review: Interest Rates Remain Unchanged at 1.75%
Following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s meeting ,the Fed left its interest on excess reserves (IOER) rate unchanged at 1.75%. The fed funds rate will continue to trade between 1.75% and an overnight-reverse repurchase (ON-RRP) rate of 1.50% (see Box 2 below). The Fed’s current normaliza...
Here's Why U.S. GDP Growth is Exceeding Expectations
Real GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.3% in the first quarter of 2018, exceeding expectations. Business nonresidential fixed investment was particularly strong this quarter, likely spurred by TCJA. BEA specifically credits TCJA for growth in personal disposable income, personal savings, and wages.
Supplemental Data for Social Capital Index
The Social Capital Project is pleased to provide new social capital index and subindex estimates for metropolitan and micropolitan areas (Core Based Statistical Areas, or CBSAs) and for commuting zones (CZs).
