CHART OF THE WEEK

Some argue the decrease in the overall labor force participation rate (LFPR) is attributable to Baby Boomers retiring.  However, as the chart shows, the LFPR for 25 to 64 year olds is falling while the LFPR of those 65 years and older is rising.  This implies the probability of a 25 to 64 year old being in the labor force has shrunk while the probability of someone 65 years and older being in the labor force has risen.

 

Using the December 2007 LFPRs as a benchmark, JEC estimates that had the labor market recovered to its pre-recession level, then 3.7 million more 25 to 64 year olds would be in the labor force, while 1.6 million more individuals 65 years and older should have retired by now.  Taken together, we estimate that at least 5.3 million people ages 25 and older have been adversely affected by this lackluster recovery.

 

LAST WEEK

News & Commentary Weekly Highlights:

• Wall Street Journal: Obama Administration Imposes New Requirements on Pay Data, Sick Leave (Thursday)
• Bloomberg: Affordable Housing Is Easy. In Theory. (Wednesday)
• Wall Street Journal: 'Death spiral'? ObamaCare problems making coverage harder to afford, find (Wednesday)
• Spectator: New York Times Paints a False Picture of Prosperity (Tuesday)
• RealClear Markets: Negative Rates Aren't Working. Why Do Central Banks Persist? (Monday)

 

Top Economic Indicator Highlights:

• PCE Deflator, excluding food and energy, year-over-year percentage change
  • August: 1.7%, July: 1.6%, June: 1.6%.
  • The Personal Consumption Expenditures index is a more comprehensive measure of price changes than the Consumer Price Index, and is used for the Federal Reserve’s inflation target of 2 percent.
  • Noteworthy: The Fed’s main inflation indicator was up 1.7 percent from this time last year.  The upward tick from the preceding months makes the Fed more likely to increase its target federal funds rate at the next meeting on November 2^nd.

 

THIS WEEK

Upcoming Major Indicators

• Construction (10:00am, Mon)
• ISM Manufacturing (10:00am, Mon)
• Motor Vehicle Sales (4:00pm, Mon)
• CoreLogic Home Price Index (10:00am, Tue)
• ADP National Employment Report (8:15am, Wed)
• Trade Balance (8:30am, Wed)
• ISM Non-Manufacturing (10:00am, Wed)
• Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, & Orders (10:00am, Wed)
• Jobless Claims (8:30am, Thu)
• Employment Situation (8:30am, Fri)
• Wholesale Trade (10:00am, Fri)
• Consumer Credit (3:00pm, Fri)