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Representative David Schweikert - Vice Chairman

Recent Economic Developments - Freefall Ends, Significant Risks Remain

Recent Economic Developments - Freefall Ends, Significant Risks Remain

Output in the economy, measured by the inflation-adjusted (real) gross domestic product (GDP) fell at a 1.0% annualized rate in the 2nd quarter, an improvement from -6.4% in the 1st quarter, -5.4% in the 4th quarter of 2008, and -2.7% the 3rd quarter of 2008. The four consecutive quarterly declines in GDP is a post World War II record string of declines. The unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in June and is up by 4.6 percentage points since the start of the recession. Non-farm payroll employment fell by 467,000 jobs in June, above May’s losses of 322,000 jobs but more moderate than the average decline of almost 700,000 in the first three months of this year. The economy remains sluggish, but incoming data show signs of repair; the paces of decline in output is diminishing; the housing market is showing signs of stabilization; and home price declines have subsided (by some measures, prices have shown some recent increases). Arresting the declines in home prices and resulting declines in household wealth is important for an economic recovery. However, with more and more households experiencing unemployment, home foreclosures continue to grow.

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