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Representative David Schweikert - Vice Chairman

Weekly Economic Update: September 29 - October 3, 2014

Weekly Economic Update: September 29 - October 3, 2014

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Personal income rose 0.3% in August while spending rose 0.5%. Pending home sales fell 1.0% in August. The Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.5% in July. Vehicle sales fell a sharp 6.3% in September to a lower-than-expected annual rate of 16.43 million units. The ISM manufacturing index fell 2.4 points to a lower-than-expected 56.6. Factory orders fell 10.1% in August. The economy added 248,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%. The U.S. trade deficit shrank 0.5% to $40.1 billion in August. The ISM services index ticked down a point to 58.6 in September. Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 287,000 for the week ended 9/27.

• Personal income rose 0.3% in August while spending rose 0.5%. Year-over-year, income is up 4.3%, and spending is up 4.1%. The PCE price index was unchanged in August, with core PCE up 0.1%, and headline PCE was up 1.5% over the year (as is core PCE).

• Pending home sales fell 1.0% in August.

• The Case-Shiller home price index fell 0.5% in July. Not seasonally adjusted, the 20-city index is up 6.7% year-over-year. The Washington, D.C. home price index increased 0.6% in June.

• Vehicle sales fell a sharp 6.3% in September to a lower-than-expected annual rate of 16.43 million units. Sales are up 6.6% from a year ago.

• The ISM manufacturing index fell 2.4 points to a lower-than-expected 56.6.

• Construction spending fell 0.8% in August. Year-over-year, spending is up 5.0%.

• Factory orders fell 10.1% in August. The figure is affected by airshow orders that caused factory orders to jump 10.5% in July; together the two months show flat growth. Excluding transportation, orders ticked down 0.1%.

• The economy added 248,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in September, while the unemployment rate fell to 5.9%. Net revisions for July and August were up 69,000. Private payrolls are up 236,000. Turning to the household survey, the number unemployed fell 329,000 to 9.3 million, down 1.9 million over the year. The number of long-term unemployed remained little changed at 3.0 million, down 1.2 million over the year. The labor force participation rate changed little at 62.7 percent; the employment-to-population ratio was 59.0% for the fourth month in a row. The number of employed persons increased 232,000 over the month and the civilian noninstitutional population increased 217,000. Persons not in the labor force rose by 315,000; the net loss to the civilian labor force is 97,000.

• The U.S. trade deficit shrank 0.5% to $40.1 billion in August. Exports were up 0.2% while imports were up 0.1%.

• The ISM services index ticked down a point to 58.6 in September.

• Initial jobless claims fell 8,000 to 287,000 for the week ended September 27th.

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