CHART OF THE WEEK

 

1.2 Million More Men Aged 25 to 54 Find Jobs in 6 Months

 

 

In the last 6 months (Aug-2017 to Feb-2018), nearly 1.2 million more prime working-age men were able to find employment, compared with just 207,000 over the preceding 19 months (Jan-2016 to Aug-2017). Less than a year ago, former Obama Council of Economic Advisers Chair Jason Furman was sounding the alarm about falling rates of employment and workforce participation by men in their prime working years.

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LAST WEEK

News & Commentary Weekly Highlights

CNBC: Labor force increase is biggest since 2003 as many Americans finally get back to work

Bloomberg: Fed’s Kashkari Says Jobs Data Are Sign U.S. Not at Full Employment Yet

Wall Street Journal: Stock Buybacks Are Proof of Tax Reform’s Success

Wall Street Journal: U.S. Will Be the World’s Largest Oil Producer by 2023, Says IEA

 

Top Economic Indicator Highlights

Productivity and Costs (Q4-2017, seasonally adjusted at annualized growth rates, revised estimate)

Increasing productivity growth is essential for living standards to improve. Before 2008 nonfarm business labor productivity growth averaged 2.4%.

Category	revised estimate	preliminary estimate
Nonfarm Business Labor Productivity	0.0%	-0.1%

 

Noteworthy: Nonfarm business labor productivity was revised up from -0.1% to 0.0%. This is the first year since 2010, that labor productivity growth was not negative in at least one quarter. From Q4-2016 to Q4-2017, labor productivity increased 1.2%, above the 0.6% average for 2011-2016.

Employment Situation (January 2018)

Category	February	January	December
Nonfarm payroll jobs (thousands)	313	239	175
Headline unemployment rate (U-3)	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
“True” unemployment rate (U-6)	8.2%	8.2%	8.1%

 

Noteworthy: According to “new normal” theory, job creation should be slowing not rising, yet 313,000 jobs were created, far exceeding the 205,000 expectation. Furthermore, the labor force participation rate for the prime working-age population (ages 25 to 54) jumped from 81.8% to 82.8%.

THIS WEEK

Upcoming Economic Data

Monday

No releases

 

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00am)

Consumer Price Index (8:30am)

 

Wednesday

Producer Price Index (8:30am)

Retail Sales (8:30am)

Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey (10:00am)

Business Inventories (10:00am)

 

Thursday

Jobless Claims (8:30am)

Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30am)

Empire State Manufacturing Survey (8:30am)

Import and Export Prices (8:30am)

Housing Market Index (HMI) (10:00am)

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet (4:30pm)

Money Supply (4:30pm)

 

Friday

Housing Starts (8:30am)

Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization (9:15am)

Consumer Sentiment (10:00am)

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) (10:00am)