KEY TAKEAWAYS
At 8:30am, the BLS announced that in September:

Establishment Survey
• The U.S. added 336k nonfarm jobs in September. Job gains generally occurred in the service
sector (234k) and government (73k).
• The nonfarm print strongly beat expectations. E.g., economists polled by WSJ expected the
economy to add 170k jobs.
• However… the inaugural forecast of the JEC macro model was closer. It forecast 400k on
the
strength of recent data.
• Private employment growth was also quite strong. The BLS estimates 263k, while ADP separately
estimated 89k earlier this week.

Household Survey
• The headline unemployment rate held at 3.8%. While at a 15-month high, it remains near historical
lows.
• The U-6 unemployment rate (a broader definition of unemployment) ticked down from 7.0% from
7.1%.
• Similarly, the labor force participation rate held steady at 62.8%. Similarly, the prime-age rate
held at 83.5%.

Establishment Survey Revisions
• This month, nonfarm jobs for August were revised up by 40k, while nonfarm jobs for July were
revised up by 79k.
• These revisions break the recent streak of downwards revisions to the initial numbers
(3rd
estimate minus 1st estimate).