Weekly Economic Update 4/9: “You are better off now than you were 15 months ago”

April 09, 2018

CHART OF THE WEEK

Paulsen: “You are better off now than you were 15 months ago”

Smoothing monthly variations, the three-month moving average shows that between 2015 and January 2017, weekly earnings growth slowed to 2%. Since then, as regulatory reform and the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act expanded economic potential for Americans, weekly earnings growth has accelerated to 3%.

*Note: Data reported in chart and description are 3-month moving averages of year-over-year growth rates.

Upcoming JEC Hearing

Unleashing America’s Economic Potential (Wednesday, 2:00pm, 216 Hart Senate Office Building)

Chairman’s Update

In an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Chairman Erik Paulsen said:

“The good news is that on the regulatory side and the tax reform side, the economy is moving in the right direction and people feel good about that. You are better off now than you were 15 months ago.”

But, he cautioned that:

“I think the President is accurate in wanting to target certain bad actors. That could be China on intellectual property for instance. But, broad tariffs have the opportunity to backfire in a hurry, and negate a lot of the gains that have been made with the tax cut overhaul.”

LAST WEEK

JEC Release

Chairman Paulsen Reacts to March Jobs Numbers
March 2018 Jobs Review

News & Commentary Weekly Highlights

FXStreet: Seasonality Issues, Weather Limits Headline Jobs, Fed Still On
Wall Street Journal: Manufacturing Industry Has Strongest Jobs Increase in Three Years
CNBC: ISM manufacturing index hits 59.3 in March; construction spending up 0.1% in February
MarketWatch: Fed’s Bullard sees no reason to hike interest rates further
Cato: From Silicon Valley to the Big Apple: John Williams Named Next NY Fed President

Top Economic Indicator Highlights

Labor Market Conditions Remain Favorable

Employment Situation (March 2018)
March’s creation of 103,000 jobs came in below expectations. However, complications regarding seasonal adjustment measures may be responsible. Average job creation of 214,000 in February and March compared with average monthly job creation of 182,000 in 2017 show the labor market has continued to strengthen this year. Category March February January Nonfarm payroll jobs (thousands) 103 326 176 Headline unemployment rate (U-3) 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% “True” unemployment rate (U-6) 8.0% 8.2% 8.2%

Category	March	February	January
Nonfarm payroll jobs (thousands)	103	326	176
Headline unemployment rate (U-3)	4.1%	4.1%	4.1%
“True” unemployment rate (U-6)	8.0%	8.2%	8.2%