Weekly Economic Update: March 5 - March 9

March 05, 2018

CHART OF THE WEEK

Jobless Claims Lowest in Nearly a Half Century

Jobless claims for the week of February 24, 2018, fell to their lowest level since the week of December 6, 1969. This indicates the labor market is continuing to strengthen. As a percentage of the civilian population, it is the lowest ever.

LAST WEEK

News & Commentary Weekly Highlights

MarketWatch: U.S. jobless claims fall to lowest level since 1969

MarketWatch: ISM manufacturing gauge hits 13-year high in February

CNBC: US crude oil output hit an all-time high in November, taking out the 1970 record

Bloomberg: Maybe Cities Don’t Need Tech Hubs to Succeed

Wall Street Journal: Trump to Impose Steep Aluminum and Steel Tariffs

The Hill: Congress should push Powell on policy sea change

Top Economic Indicator Highlights

Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate) (Q4-2017)

Category (seasonally adjusted at annualized rates)	2^nd estimate	1^st estimate
Real GDP (RGDP) growth	2.5%	2.6%

GDP Component Contributions

Noteworthy: Third quarter RGDP growth was revised down slightly from 2.6% to 2.5% due mostly to downward revisions for consumer spending on goods, business inventory investment, and lower than initially reported federal government expenditures.

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Deflator (January 2018)

Category (percentage change from same month last year)	Jan	Dec	Nov
Overall PCE Deflator	1.65%	1.71%	1.74%
Core PCE Deflator (excludes food and energy)	1.52%	1.53%	1.51%

PCE Inflation

Noteworthy: The Fed’s main inflation metric continues to remain below its “symmetric” 2 percent inflation target. The continuation of below target inflation makes Fed interest rate hikes less likely.