Weekly Economic Update: January 8 – January 12, 2018
CHART OF THE WEEK
Untapped Labor Potential Could Increase U.S. Economic Growth
The labor force participation rates of the prime working-age (25 to 54) population remained relatively stable or increased in other G7 countries since 2007. However, the U.S. rate of 81.7 percent in 2017 remains well below its 2007 rate of 83.0 percent (average annual rates). This difference amounts to 1.7 million prime working-age people, and implies the U.S. economy has considerable untapped potential.
LAST WEEK
News & Commentary Weekly Highlights
Fortune: President Trump Surfs a Prosperity Wave That Could Grow Larger
CNBC: ISM manufacturing and construction spending both clock gains
Bloomberg: Fed's Bullard Says Tax Overhaul May Light Fire Under Investment
Economics21: Follow the UK Model for Entitlement Reform
Wall Street Journal: What Economic Forecasters Got Right, and Wrong, in 2017
Tax Foundation: 2018 Tax Brackets
JEC Releases
Top Economic Indicator Highlights
Employment Situation (December 2017)
Category |
December |
November |
October |
Nonfarm payroll jobs (thousands) |
148 |
252 |
211 |
Headline unemployment rate (U-3) |
4.1% |
4.1% |
4.1% |
“True” unemployment rate (U-6) |
8.1% |
8.0% |
8.0% |
Noteworthy: Just over a year ago, the median projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg was that the economy would create slightly less than 2 million jobs in 2017 and that the unemployment rate would be 4.6% at the year’s end. In 2017, 2.1 million jobs were created and the unemployment rate was 4.1%. The “real” unemployment rate fell from 9.1% to 8.1% over the year. Moderate wage growth and a low prime-age LFPR imply there is room to further accelerate economic growth.
THIS WEEK
Upcoming Economic Data
Monday
Consumer Credit (3:00pm)
Tuesday
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) (10:00am)
Wednesday
Exports/Imports (8:30am)
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations Survey (10:00am)
Wholesale Trade (10:00am)
Thursday
Jobless Claims (8:30am)
Producer Price Index (8:30am)
Friday
Consumer Price Index (8:30am)
Retail Sales (8:30am)
Business Inventories (10:00am)