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Representative David Schweikert - Vice Chairman

Weekly Economic Update November 3-7, 2014

Weekly Economic Update November 3-7, 2014

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The ISM index grew a strong 2.4 points to 59.0 in October. Vehicle sales grew at a 16.5 million unit annual pace in October. Construction spending declined 0.4% in September. The U.S. international trade deficit widened $3.0 billion to $43.0 billion in September. Factory orders fell 0.6% in September. The ISM services index slowed to 57.1 in October. Nonfarm productivity growth for the 3rd quarter increased an annualized 2.0% while unit labor costs increased 0.3%. The economy added 214,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October while the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.8%. Consumer credit increased $15.9 billion (0.5%) in September to $3.627 trillion. Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 278,000 for the week ended 11/1.

  • The ISM index grew a strong 2.4 points to 59.0 in October. This level matches August’s level as the two strongest since February 2011.
  • Vehicle sales grew at a 16.5 million unit annual pace in October. Sales are up 7.0% from a year ago, and up 0.2% over the month.
  • Construction spending declined 0.4% in September. From a year ago, spending is up 2.9%.
  • The U.S. international trade deficit widened $3.0 billion to $43.0 billion in September. Exports declined 1.5%, while imports remained unchanged.
  • Factory orders fell 0.6% in September.
  • The ISM services index slowed to 57.1 in October.
  • Nonfarm productivity growth for the 3rd quarter increased an annualized 2.0% while unit labor costs increased 0.3%. Year-over-year, productivity is up 0.9% percent in the 3rd quarter, and year-ago unit labor costs were up 2.4%.
  • The economy added 214,000 nonfarm payroll jobs in October while the unemployment rate ticked down to 5.8%. Private payrolls increased 209,000. The average monthly gain for nonfarm payroll jobs has been 222,000 over the past 12 months. Turning to the household survey, the number of unemployed is down to 9.0 million, declining by 1.2 million since the start of 2014. The number of long-term unemployed was little changes at 2.9 million, declining 1.1 million over the past 12 months. The civilian labor force participation rate remained little changed at 62.8%, flat since April. The employment-to-population ratio increased to 59.2%. Involuntary part-time workers remained roughly unchanged at 7.0 million.
  • Consumer credit increased $15.9 billion (0.5%) in September to $3.267 trillion. Non-revolving credit (i.e., auto loans) rose $14.48 billion while revolving credit (i.e., credit cards) rose $1.44 billion.
  • Initial jobless claims fell 10,000 to 278,000 for the week ended November 1st. The 4-week moving average hit a new 14-year low.

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