Weekly Economic Updates, August 1-5 and August 8-12
In light of last week’s absence of an update, I have included the economic indicators from both August 1-5 and 8-12 below. The first table displays the data from the week ended August 12th and the usual weekly and year-to-date calculations for that week, as well as the two-week change in indicators from the week ended July 29th to that ended August 12th (including the large market declines of August 1-5).
Overview: The economy added 117,000 jobs in July as the unemployment rate ticked down to 9.1%. The FOMC held constant its target range of 0.0%-0.25% for the federal funds rate. Productivity for the 2nd quarter was revised down to a decline of 0.3%. The ISM index fell 4.4 points to 50.9 in July as the ISM services index fell 0.6 points to 52.7. Consumer credit increased $15.5 billion in June. The U.S. trade deficit widened 4.5% in June. Retail sales were up 0.5% in July. Factory orders fell 0.8% in June. Personal income edged up 0.1% in June as personal spending fell 0.2%. Auto sales increased 5.8% in July. Construction spending was up 0.2% in June. Business inventories increased 0.3% in June. Initial jobless claims fell 7,000 to a level of 395,000 for the week ended 8/6.
- The economy added 117,000 jobs in July as the unemployment rate ticked down to 9.1%. The labor force participation rate fell to a new 27-year low of 63.9% as 193,000 workers left the labor force.
- The FOMC held constant its target for the federal funds rate in a range of 0.0%-0.25% and added that it plans to maintain exceptionally low rates through at least mid-2013. The FOMC statement also noted: economic growth this year has been considerably slower than expected; the labor market has deteriorated in recent months; inflation has moderated; a slower pace of recovery than previously anticipated is now expected; and downside risks to the economic outlook have increased.
- Productivity growth for the 2nd quarter of 2011 was revised downwards to a decline of 0.3%, from a previously reported increase of 1.8%.
- The ISM index unexpectedly declined 4.4 points to 50.9 in July.
- The ISM services index edged down 0.6 points to 52.7 in July.
- Consumer credit increased by a greater-than-expected $15.5 billion in June, to $2.446 trillion. Revolving credit increased $5.2 billion (0.66%) while nonrevolving credit rose $10.3 billion (0.63%).
- The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly widened by $2.3 billion (4.5%) to $53.1 billion in June. A decline, or narrowing, of similar magnitude had been expected.
- Retail sales rose 0.5% in July.
- Factory orders were down 0.8% in June.
- Personal income edged up 0.1% in June as personal spending declined 0.2%.
- Auto sales increased 5.8% in July to an annual rate of 12.23 million units. Sales were also up 5.8% from a year ago.
- Construction spending was up 0.2% in June.
- Business inventories increased 0.3% in June.
- Initial jobless claims fell 7,000 to 395,000 for the week ended August 6th, after having increased by 1,000 for the week ended July 30th.