Oct 16 2017
Are Trump Tax Cuts Brewing Bubbles?
Despite the President’s and Republican Congress’s failure so far to deliver on their agenda, expectations of policy changes and big tax cuts for top earners and big business have pushed the U.S. stock market to highs now verging into bubble territory. The price-to-earnings ratio, or PE, provides a measure of investors’ expectations of future corporate profits. Stock valuations relative to corporate earnings in S&P 500 companies have never risen above 28 without a sharp and severe stock market correction lurking around the corner. Only three times in U.S. history has the PE risen above 28: (1) on the eve of the Great Depression, (2) on the eve of the Dot-Com bubble bursting, and most recently (3) when Donald Trump took office.