Marianne Levine
The economy lost jobs in September for the first time in seven years, a consequence of late-summer hurricanes.
The Labor Department reported Friday morning that the economy lost 33,000 jobs,down from 169,000 jobs added in August.
“In the midst of a hurricane, nobody is hiring,” said Megan Greene, chief economist at Manulife Asset Management.
In a statement, William Wiatrowski, the acting commissioner for the Bureau of Labor Statistics, explained that during the survey week, which includes the 12th of the month, "many employees in areas affected by the hurricanes were likely off payrolls."
The jobs report also included some positive news. September unemployment, the report showed, was 4.2 percent, down from August’s 4.4 percent, and the lowest level since February 2001."We do not believe the hurricanes had a discernible effect on the national unemployment rate," Wiatrowski said in his statement.
In addition, average hourly private-sector earnings rose 2.9 percent in September over the previous year, the largest increase since December 2016. In August, they were up 2.7 percent. The hurricane may have skewed wage growth. Pantheon Macroeconomics’ Ian Shepherdson wrote in a note to clients that wages were up "probably because the people who temporarily dropped off payrolls are lower paid than average.”
Another bit of good news was that labor force participation ticked up to 63.1 percent, up from August's 62.9 percent and the highest level since March 2014.
Appearing on Bloomberg TV, White House chief economic adviser Gary Cohn said "there is some noise in the number because of the hurricane" but that "you discount that noise out and you’re looking ... at the wage growth and you’re looking at the unemployment number, which is the real bright news here."
President Donald Trump appeared Thursday to be trying to get out in front of Friday's jobs report, which analysts had predicted would show a slowdown, when he tweeted: "Stock market hits an ALL-TIME high! Unemployment lowest in 16 years! Business and manufacturing enthusiasm at highest level in decades!” Trump's "lowest in 16 years" claim reached back to the unemployment number for July, when it was 4.3 percent. In August, unemployment ticked up to 4.4 percent.
Republicans and Democrats both acknowledged this was more a hurricane report than a jobs report. In a written statement, House Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Texas) said that "it's clear from this jobs report that Hurricanes Harvey and Irma not only devastated communities in Texas and Florida, they devastated their local economies as well."
Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-N.M.), ranking member of the Joint Economic Committee, said that the "job numbers underscore the gravity of the task at hand — to rebuild families’ lost homes, businesses, and communities in the wake of the devastating hurricanes."
Analysts did not seem alarmed by the job loss. Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc., told Bloomberg: “I don’t think this is indicative of problems in the labor market -- it’s because of the hurricanes." He added that “the economy is in decent shape, the labor market continues to improve, and we’ll bounce back to job growth in the final three months of 2017."
Still, Elise Gould, senior economist at the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, said in a statement that even factoring in the hurricanes, "such a loss—on top of net downward revisions in July and August—is concerning for an economy that is still recovering. In order just to keep up with the working-age population growth, we need to add at least 90,000 jobs a month."
The unfavorable jobs report comes as Trump prepares to nominate a Federal Reserve chair. Last week, Trump said he would make a decision in the next “two or three weeks.”