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Graham-Cassidy Would Devastate the Health Care System

Weekly Economic Snapshot 9/25 - 9/29

Economic Facts for This Week

Republicans’ latest Trumpcare bill advanced by Senators Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Bill Cassidy (R-LA) may change rapidly in last-ditch efforts to buy votes before the Friday deadline, but the heart of the matter is clear: Graham-Cassidy would devastate America’s health care system by removing protections for pre-existing conditions, reinstating lifetime limits, gutting federal spending on health care, and kicking the biggest consequences down the road to 2027. Here’s what we know based on the best information available now:

  • If enacted, Graham-Cassidy would cast 32 million Americans out of health insurance coverage in 2027, including: 511,000 people in Arizona; 41,000 in Alaska; 386,000 in Kentucky; 161,000 in Maine; 243,000 in Nevada; 809,000 in Ohio; and 156,000 in West Virginia.
  • 19 million people would lose Medicaid coverage.
  • In 2020, Graham-Cassidy would eliminate health care premium tax credits that help nearly 9 million people in working families afford quality private insurance in the individual marketplace. On average, state residents would lose credits to offset the cost of insurance worth: $11,709 per year in Alaska; $6,489 per year in Arizona; $3,519 in Kentucky; $4,961 in Maine; $3,447 in Nevada; $3,203 in Ohio; and $6,696 in West Virginia. See what will happen in your state here.
  • Hospitals would buckle under the financial strain of an additional $28.8 billion in uncompensated costs resulting from millions fewer Americans having access to health coverage.
  • The Graham-Cassidy bill ignores the looming funding cliff facing community health centers (CHCs) across America. CHCs deliver cost-effective primary health care to nearly 26 million patients—including more than 330,000 veterans—in the nation’s most underserved communities, rural and urban, and save our health care system $24 billion annually. See how CHCs serve constituents in your state.

Chart of the Week

Senate Republican leaders appear ready to steamroll ahead on Graham-Cassidy without a full CBO score to inform themselves and the public about the fiscal, health, and economic implications of this Trumpcare policy. In the meantime, JEC Democrats have compiled the best estimates of how Graham-Cassidy will affect health insurance premiums, coverage losses, federal health funding, costs to hospitals, and employment and the broader economy in your state.

 ICYMI

  • Safety net programs can yield multi-generational impacts: Children of mothers who received Medicaid services while pregnant under a 1980s expansion were in turn more likely to give birth to healthier babies, while experiencing personal income gains of more than $8,500 by age 36 compared to those not benefitting from the expansion. This finding demonstrates that public investments in prenatal health services can lift people’s health and living standards across generations.
  • A new study of candidates for top corporate executive jobs shows that even when accounting for differences in individual interpersonal, managerial, strategic and analytic abilities, and charisma, female candidates are still significantly less likely to be hired as CEOs and COOs.
  • CBO’s analysis of corporate tax inversions—a loophole that allows U.S. corporations to merge with a foreign corporation to escape paying corporate income tax—finds that the average inverting corporation shirked $65 million in U.S. taxes in the first year after merging. In total, tax inversions will mean $12 billion less paid in corporate taxes through 2027.

Coming This Week